Risk analysis of eCall systems 2028
Transport Analysis estimates that there will be 793,650-853,867 passenger cars and light trucks with non-functioning eCall systems (automatic alarms) after a total shutdown of 2G/3G networks in 2028. With functioning eCall systems, this fleet of vehicles would reduce the number of fatalities and serious injuries by 1-4 and 10-32 respectively during the five-year period 2028-2032.
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Transport Analysis has assisted the Swedish Transport Agency with an analysis of road safety risks with 2G/3G 112 eCall systems following the expected total shutdown of 2G/3G networks in 2028. Risk estimates are made for all M1 and N1 vehicles with 2G/3G eCall in 2028-2032, of which 51-55 per cent fall under the European eCall regulation (EU 2015/758).
The analysis is based on common assumptions in previous impact and cost-benefit analyses of eCall systems before the EU eCall regulation came into force on April 1, 2018 (EU 2015/758). For the purpose of ex post assessment, the risk analysis ends with a causal analysis of emergency response times and fatality rates in road traffic accidents in 2022-2023. This analysis did not show any benefits of automatic alarms.
In general, there is a lack of evidence-based studies on the effects of eCall on road traffic accidents and their outcomes . Impact studies and cost-benefit analyses were carried out before the EU regulation came into force. Since then we have seen no systematic follow-ups or evaluations. Thus, there is a need for further investigation and research.
